Looking Toward the Horizon: Top 7 Health Care Trends for Employers in 2022

At the recent PBGH year-end roundtable, noted health care futurist Ian Morrison discussed key health care trends that both he and PBGH believe will be most relevant to purchasers in the year ahead. Morrison is the author of several books on health care and has worked with more than 100 Fortune 500 companies in health care, manufacturing, information technology and financial services. 

Here, the top 7 trends for large health care purchasers to watch as we head into 2022.

1. The workforce will remain in upheaval

Providers and other employers continue to grapple with the unfolding impact of the Great Resignation. Difficulty recruiting and retaining staff will remain an ongoing problem for many provider organizations. One consequence will be the continued ascendance of telehealth and other virtual care services. Separately, the loss of employer-based insurance for many workers who’ve left their jobs will likely increase self-pay, health exchange and Medicaid patients, resulting in a worsening payer mix and continued financial pressure on providers.  

2. Providers depend on employers for profits

According to a recent RAND study, hospitals charge employers, on average, about 250% of Medicare rates. The premium over Medicare can range for 130% in Iowa to 300% in California. The reality is that providers are dependent on self-insured and commercial payers for their entire margin; purchasers that can’t or won’t consider shifting provider networks to compel some level of competition will continue to be subjected to the highest charges.  

3. Choice has been conflated with quality

Employers are beginning to understand that in opting for broad, open provider networks over the years, they’ve undermined their own ability to direct employees and members to the highest-quality, most efficient provider organizations. This recognition is supported by surveys that show consumers themselves are willing to trade choice for quality.  

That’s why, increasingly, large employers/purchasers are measuring and contracting with teams and individuals that meet their standards for quality and service and respond to their concerns, stepping away from one-size-fits-all arrangements with large health systems. PBGH members, for example, report quantified success through direct purchasing relationships with systems that are eager to innovate and demonstrate quality. Passively accepting health plan reports is a thing of the past as employers gain the experience and data needed to scale new approaches. 

4. Consolidation will continue

Mergers and acquisitions across all levels of health care will continue as organizations negatively impacted by the pandemic are picked up by those interested in broadening their footprint or extending vertical integration. This trend will increase the market share of the most powerful health systems and reduce potentially more cost-effective alternatives for purchasers.  

5. Investment in digital point solutions will keep growing

Venture capital investment in digital health solutions has doubled over the past several years to approximately $14.7 billion this year, and the trend is expected to continue. Fundamental questions remain about whether these solutions are truly adding value or simply increasing fragmentation and cost across the system. Employers are overwhelmed by the sales pitches they receive from new companies vying for their business and are looking for trusted sources that use clinical rigor and data-based outcomes to help them assess their value and create needed standards in the market for new entrants.  

6. Addressing the health care inequities exposed by the pandemic will become a priority for providers and purchasers alike

The risks of hospitalization and death for marginalized people in the U.S. are two-to-three times higher than for white people. Organizations will continue looking for opportunities to close this gap by improving access and finding innovative ways to address social determinants of health. Such efforts can include innovative maternity care that reduces disparities and improves quality and outcomes and the broad adoption of patient-reported outcomes, which offer an ideal means for gaining insight into the care process and how its experienced by patients.   

7. Employers have an historic opportunity to impose greater control over the health care supply chain

Because the pandemic has caused significant upheaval across the health care system and created financial stress for many provider organizations, purchasers have an unprecedented opening to leverage their buying power in pursuit of higher-quality, lower-cost care. However, they can have an impact only if they’re willing to act in concert. Alignment on priorities and implementation is critical to advancing the change we need. Purchasers must become more aggressive in designing benefits that favor high-value delivery partners.